Argus2026.01
Attacker Next-Step Simulation
The next move,
before they make it.
A deterministic model of what an AI-driven adversary would most likely do next, given the current findings — each step paired with the Fix Pack that removes it. No exploitation is performed; every step is inferred from collected evidence.
How this simulation works
Argus applies versioned, deterministic rules over the findings, graph context, and SAR signals from the latest scan to rank the adversary’s most probable next actions. This is not a penetration test. Argus takes no network action and attempts no exploitation — every step, confidence value, and blocking Fix Pack is reproducible from the same inputs.
Context
Simulation at a glance
Ranked steps
3
High confidence
1
Steps with a blocking Fix Pack
3 / 3
Hops to crown jewel
2
Simulation
Most likely next moves
1
Harvest API schemas at public Swagger endpoint
86%
edge-api-01 · 203.0.113.40→Internal API gateway
Full enumeration of the internal API surface and authentication flows — sharply accelerates targeted credential attacks and gives the adversary a precise map before any intrusive action.
2
Pivot to internal staging host via shared SSH key
71%
edge-api-01→stg-app-07 · 10.20.4.7
Lateral movement into the staging segment; the shared key grants shell access on four further hosts, widening the foothold ahead of the objective.
3
Reach crown-jewel datastore (2 hops)
58%
stg-app-07→db-finance-01 · 10.30.9.2
Path to the regulated financial datastore via a shared service account. Two hops from the current foothold; the asset has no endpoint telemetry, so activity here would likely go undetected.
Resolution
Break the chain
| Step removed | Fix Pack | Priority | Effect on simulation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Swagger harvest | FP-2026-0042 | Emergency | Removes the only internet-reachable entry — steps 2 & 3 become unreachable |
| 2 · SSH key pivot | FP-2026-0013 | Contain Now | Severs lateral movement into staging |
| 3 · Crown-jewel reach | FP-2026-0238 | Remediate (Urgent) | Closes the final hop to regulated data |
Highest-leverage action. Closing FP-2026-0042 alone collapses the simulation: with the public foothold gone, the modelled adversary has no path to steps 2 or 3. Argus re-runs the simulation on the next scan and confirms the steps are removed — no exploitation, just proof the moves are no longer available.